193 research outputs found
Bayesian subset simulation
We consider the problem of estimating a probability of failure ,
defined as the volume of the excursion set of a function above a given threshold, under a given
probability measure on . In this article, we combine the popular
subset simulation algorithm (Au and Beck, Probab. Eng. Mech. 2001) and our
sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of a probability of failure
(Bect, Ginsbourger, Li, Picheny and Vazquez, Stat. Comput. 2012). This makes it
possible to estimate when the number of evaluations of is very
limited and is very small. The resulting algorithm is called Bayesian
subset simulation (BSS). A key idea, as in the subset simulation algorithm, is
to estimate the probabilities of a sequence of excursion sets of above
intermediate thresholds, using a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach. A
Gaussian process prior on is used to define the sequence of densities
targeted by the SMC algorithm, and drive the selection of evaluation points of
to estimate the intermediate probabilities. Adaptive procedures are
proposed to determine the intermediate thresholds and the number of evaluations
to be carried out at each stage of the algorithm. Numerical experiments
illustrate that BSS achieves significant savings in the number of function
evaluations with respect to other Monte Carlo approaches
A Bayesian approach to constrained single- and multi-objective optimization
This article addresses the problem of derivative-free (single- or
multi-objective) optimization subject to multiple inequality constraints. Both
the objective and constraint functions are assumed to be smooth, non-linear and
expensive to evaluate. As a consequence, the number of evaluations that can be
used to carry out the optimization is very limited, as in complex industrial
design optimization problems. The method we propose to overcome this difficulty
has its roots in both the Bayesian and the multi-objective optimization
literatures. More specifically, an extended domination rule is used to handle
objectives and constraints in a unified way, and a corresponding expected
hyper-volume improvement sampling criterion is proposed. This new criterion is
naturally adapted to the search of a feasible point when none is available, and
reduces to existing Bayesian sampling criteria---the classical Expected
Improvement (EI) criterion and some of its constrained/multi-objective
extensions---as soon as at least one feasible point is available. The
calculation and optimization of the criterion are performed using Sequential
Monte Carlo techniques. In particular, an algorithm similar to the subset
simulation method, which is well known in the field of structural reliability,
is used to estimate the criterion. The method, which we call BMOO (for Bayesian
Multi-Objective Optimization), is compared to state-of-the-art algorithms for
single- and multi-objective constrained optimization
Bayesian Subset Simulation: a kriging-based subset simulation algorithm for the estimation of small probabilities of failure
The estimation of small probabilities of failure from computer simulations is
a classical problem in engineering, and the Subset Simulation algorithm
proposed by Au & Beck (Prob. Eng. Mech., 2001) has become one of the most
popular method to solve it. Subset simulation has been shown to provide
significant savings in the number of simulations to achieve a given accuracy of
estimation, with respect to many other Monte Carlo approaches. The number of
simulations remains still quite high however, and this method can be
impractical for applications where an expensive-to-evaluate computer model is
involved. We propose a new algorithm, called Bayesian Subset Simulation, that
takes the best from the Subset Simulation algorithm and from sequential
Bayesian methods based on kriging (also known as Gaussian process modeling).
The performance of this new algorithm is illustrated using a test case from the
literature. We are able to report promising results. In addition, we provide a
numerical study of the statistical properties of the estimator.Comment: 11th International Probabilistic Assessment and Management Conference
(PSAM11) and The Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL
2012), Helsinki : Finland (2012
Quantifying uncertainties on excursion sets under a Gaussian random field prior
We focus on the problem of estimating and quantifying uncertainties on the
excursion set of a function under a limited evaluation budget. We adopt a
Bayesian approach where the objective function is assumed to be a realization
of a Gaussian random field. In this setting, the posterior distribution on the
objective function gives rise to a posterior distribution on excursion sets.
Several approaches exist to summarize the distribution of such sets based on
random closed set theory. While the recently proposed Vorob'ev approach
exploits analytical formulae, further notions of variability require Monte
Carlo estimators relying on Gaussian random field conditional simulations. In
the present work we propose a method to choose Monte Carlo simulation points
and obtain quasi-realizations of the conditional field at fine designs through
affine predictors. The points are chosen optimally in the sense that they
minimize the posterior expected distance in measure between the excursion set
and its reconstruction. The proposed method reduces the computational costs due
to Monte Carlo simulations and enables the computation of quasi-realizations on
fine designs in large dimensions. We apply this reconstruction approach to
obtain realizations of an excursion set on a fine grid which allow us to give a
new measure of uncertainty based on the distance transform of the excursion
set. Finally we present a safety engineering test case where the simulation
method is employed to compute a Monte Carlo estimate of a contour line
Sequential search based on kriging: convergence analysis of some algorithms
Let \FF be a set of real-valued functions on a set \XX and let S:\FF \to
\GG be an arbitrary mapping. We consider the problem of making inference about
, with f\in\FF unknown, from a finite set of pointwise evaluations of
. We are mainly interested in the problems of approximation and
optimization. In this article, we make a brief review of results concerning
average error bounds of Bayesian search methods that use a random process prior
about
Optimisation bayésienne par méthodes SMC
International audienceLe problème considéré est l'optimisation d'une fonction réelle f à l'aide d'une approche bayésienne. Les évaluations de f sont choisies séquentiellement à partir d'informations a priori sur la fonction f, modélisée par un processus aléatoire, et des évaluations précédentes. Cette approche présente deux problèmes, à savoir l'estimation des lois a posteriori de paramètres intervenant dans le choix des points d'évaluations, et la maximisation du critère utilisé pour déterminer ce choix. Dans cet article, nous proposons une approche SMC (Sequential Monte Carlo) pour résoudre ces deux problèmes de façon simultanée
Gaussian process modeling for stochastic multi-fidelity simulators, with application to fire safety
To assess the possibility of evacuating a building in case of a fire, a
standard method consists in simulating the propagation of fire, using finite
difference methods and takes into account the random behavior of the fire, so
that the result of a simulation is non-deterministic. The mesh fineness tunes
the quality of the numerical model, and its computational cost. Depending on
the mesh fineness, one simulation can last anywhere from a few minutes to
several weeks. In this article, we focus on predicting the behavior of the fire
simulator at fine meshes, using cheaper results, at coarser meshes. In the
literature of the design and analysis of computer experiments, such a problem
is referred to as multi-fidelity prediction. Our contribution is to extend to
the case of stochastic simulators the Bayesian multi-fidelity model proposed by
Picheny and Ginsbourger (2013) and Tuo et al. (2014)
Relabeling and Summarizing Posterior Distributions in Signal Decomposition Problems when the Number of Components is Unknown
International audienceThis paper addresses the problems of relabeling and summarizing posterior distributions that typically arise, in a Bayesian framework, when dealing with signal decomposition problems with an unknown number of components. Such posterior distributions are defined over union of subspaces of differing dimensionality and can be sampled from using modern Monte Carlo techniques, for instance the increasingly popular RJ-MCMC method. No generic approach is available, however, to summarize the resulting variable-dimensional samples and extract from them component-specific parameters. We propose a novel approach, named Variable-dimensional Approximate Posterior for Relabeling and Summarizing (VAPoRS), to this problem, which consists in approximating the posterior distribution of interest by a "simple"---but still variable-dimensional---parametric distribution. The distance between the two distributions is measured using the Kullback-Leibler divergence, and a Stochastic EM-type algorithm, driven by the RJ-MCMC sampler, is proposed to estimate the parameters. Two signal decomposition problems are considered, to show the capability of VAPoRS both for relabeling and for summarizing variable dimensional posterior distributions: the classical problem of detecting and estimating sinusoids in white Gaussian noise on the one hand, and a particle counting problem motivated by the Pierre Auger project in astrophysics on the other hand
Summarizing Posterior Distributions in Signal Decomposition Problems when the Number of Components is Unknown
International audienceThis paper addresses the problem of summarizing the posterior distributions that typically arise, in a Bayesian framework, when dealing with signal decomposition problems with unknown number of components. Such posterior distributions are defined over union of subspaces of differing dimensionality and can be sampled from using modern Monte Carlo techniques, for instance the increasingly popular RJ-MCMC method. No generic approach is available, however, to summarize the resulting variable-dimensional samples and extract from them component-specific parameters. We propose a novel approach to this problem, which consists in approximating the complex posterior of interest by a "simple"--but still variable-dimensional--parametric distribution. The distance between the two distributions is measured using the Kullback- Leibler divergence, and a Stochastic EM-type algorithm, driven by the RJ-MCMC sampler, is proposed to estimate the parameters. The proposed algorithm is illustrated on the fundamental signal processing example of joint detection and estimation of sinusoids in white Gaussian noise
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